Uncertainty analysis and economic value prediction of water environmental capacity based on Copula and Bayesian model: A case study of Yitong River, China

Water environmental capacity (WEC) is an indicator of environment management. The uncertainty analysis of WEC is more closely aligned with the actual conditions of the water body. It is crucial for accurately formulating pollution total emissions control schemes. However, the current WEC uncertainty analysis method ignored the connection between water quality and discharge, and required a large amount of monitoring data. This study analyzed the uncertainty of the WEC and predicted its economic value based on Copula and Bayesian model for the Yitong River in China. The Copula model was employed to calculate joint probabilities of water quality and discharge. And the posterior distribution of WEC with limited data was obtained by the Bayesian formula. The results showed that the WEC-COD in the Yitong River was 9009.67 t/a, while NH 3 -N had no residual WEC. Wanjinta Highway Bridge-Kaoshan Town reach had the most serious pollution. In order to make it have WEC, the reduction of COD and NH 3 -N was 5330.47 t and 3017.87 t. The economic value of WEC-COD was 5.97 x 10 7 CNY, and the treatment cost was 2.04 x 10 8 CNY to make NH 3 -N have residual WEC. The economic value distribution of WEC was extremely uneven, which could be utilized by adjusting the sewage outlet. In addition, since the treated water was discharged into the Sihua Bridge-Wanjinta Highway Bridge reach, the WEC-COD and the economic value were 19,488.51 t/a and 8.24 x 10 7 CNY. Increasing the flow of rivers could effectively improve WEC and economic value. This study provided an evaluation tool for guiding river water environment management.