Retweeting behavior prediction based on dynamic Bayesian network classifier in microblogging networks

Nowadays, predicting user retweeting behavior in microblogging networks has gained considerable attention. Solving this problem allows for understanding the underlying mechanism of information diffusion and analyzing diffusion ' s evolution concerning a particular original microblog over time. Time-series data from microblogging networks are ubiquitous, and user retweeting behavior prediction is primarily considered a classification task. Consequently, there is a significant demand for accurate classification of time-series data. Several influential factors affect user retweeting behavior prediction in microblogging networks. However, much of the existing research focuses on studies that neglect the impact of users ' indirect social influence strength. This neglect leads to inaccurate forecasts of indirect retweeting behavior for a particular original microblog. To address this, this paper presents a new time-sensitive measure of social influence strength based on a combination of users ' temporal behavior patterns and the shortest cascade path length. Second, it proposes a prediction model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network derivative classifiers called V-DBNC to accurately predict user retweeting behavior over time. The proposed time-sensitive social influence strength factor and other factors, such as individual behavior and similarity-based driving factors, are applied to the V-DBNC model to achieve accurate user retweeting behavior prediction in the microblogging network. The joint density of factors in this classifier is estimated using a multivariate Gaussian kernel function with smoothing parameters. The V-DBNC model is empirically optimized by splitting the smoothing parameters into different-scale intervals and using the model averaging method to select the optimal classifier. Additionally, the proposed model ' s relatively simple structure helps overcome the overfitting problem and allows it to accumulate classification information through iterative evolution, promoting generalization. The real Twitter microblogging dataset is used to evaluate the performance of V-DBNC. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed model outperforms other compared approaches when dealing with the classification of time-series data.