Spatio-Temporal Changes and Key Driving Factors of Urban Green Space Configuration on Land Surface Temperature

Changes in land cover by rapid urbanization have diminished the cooling effect of urban green spaces (UGS), exacerbating the upward trend of land surface temperature (LST). A thorough and precise understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics of UGS and LST is essential for mitigating localized high temperatures in cities. This study identified the spatio-temporal changes in UGS configuration and LST in Shanghai from 2003 to 2022. The correlation between UGS configuration and LST was explored using spatial autocorrelation analysis and causal inference. The results show that (1) the high-temperature space had grown from 721 km2 in 2003 to 3059 km2 in 2022; (2) in suburbs, the largest area of UGS tended to decrease, while the number of patches tended to increase, indicating a distinct feature of suburbanization; (3) changes in the largest area of UGS had more significant spatial correlation, indicating that urban sprawl primarily impacts large UGSs; and (4) compared to the number and shape of UGS, changes in the largest area are the key factor influencing regional LST. These findings enrich the knowledge of the spatio-temporal relationship between the UGS configuration and its cooling effect in urbanization, offering valuable insights for building cooler cities.