Identifying and Optimizing the Ecological Security Pattern of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2030

The conflict between economic development and ecological protection continues to intensify, highlighting the necessity for constructing regional ecological security patterns (ESPs) to reconcile the relationship between development and protection effectively. This study used the GMOP and PLUS model to simulate future land use changes by 2030 under the following three scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), and economic development (ED). Employing the MSPA model and circuit theory, it identified ecological source areas and constructed the ESP for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) from 2000 to 2030. The results indicate that the proportion of ecological source areas increased from 22.24% in 2000 to 23.09% in 2020, the EP scenario showing the highest proportion of ecological source areas compared with the other two scenarios. These areas are densely distributed in the northern and western mountainous regions, with sparse distributions in the southern plains. The number of ecological corridors grew from 603 in 2000 to 616 in 2020, with the EP scenario having more corridors than the other two scenarios. From 2000 to 2030, corridors in the northern and western mountainous areas were denser, shorter, and more variable, while those in the southern plains were less dense, longer, and relatively stable. Over two decades, habitat areas for species in BTH increased, while landscape connectivity decreased. Compared with 2020 and the other two scenarios, the EP scenario saw an increase in habitat areas and improved landscape connectivity. The impact on ecological corridors and improvement areas primarily arose from a combination of socio-ecological drivers (e.g., elevation, slope, population), while the influence on restoration and key areas mainly stemmed from ecological factors (e.g., elevation, temperature, NDVI, precipitation). The findings demonstrate that distinguishing different geomorphological units to improve and restore the regional environment, while considering socio-ecological drivers, is crucial for restoring the overall ESP and landscape connectivity of BTH.