Tail risks of energy transition metal prices for commodity prices

Energy transition requires huge amounts of critical metals -called energy transition metals (ETMs)- to deploy clean energy technologies. The growing demand for ETMs and uncertainties regarding the path to net-zero emissions could cause ETM price oscillations, with potential effects on the prices of other commodities. We explore whether upward and downward movements in ETM prices have a neutral effect on the level and volatility of energy and non-energy commodity prices. By characterizing the conditional dependence between ETM and commodity prices, we document that, except for natural gas, extreme ETM price changes have a non-neutral effect on commodity prices, although this effect vanishes for non-extreme price movements. The implications of this evidence for investors operating in commodity markets are evaluated in terms of commodity risk-adjusted returns, commodity tail risk, and liquidity needs for trading in commodity futures contracts.