Modeling Habitat Suitability of the Climate-vulnerable Plant Thuja koraiensis in Response to Climate Change

In this study, we predict the habitat suitability of Thuja koraiensis , an endemic plant species on the Korean Peninsula, and establish management strategies for its conservation. To achieve this, field surveys were conducted on the Korean Peninsula and northeastern China to determine species occurrence points. An ensemble modeling approach was implemented, combining the Random Forest, Generalized Boosted Model, and Generalized Linear Model algorithms, to explore suitable habitats. Our results show that under current climate conditions, wide suitable habitats can be found in South Korea. Furthermore, our analysis indicated that elevation had the greatest impact on the availability of suitable habitats. On the basis of the shared socioeconomic pathway data presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report, changes in future habitat distribution were observed for the 2050s (2040- 2060) and 2070s (2060-2080). The results indicated a significant decrease in the availability of suitable habitats in South Korea, while relatively wide suitable habitats were observed in North Korea. In particular, the elevation of suitable habitat areas gradually increased, suggesting that future suitable habitats may become isolated. These research findings substantiate the necessity for implementing appropriate measures to conserve and manage the climate -vulnerable species T. koraiensis to ensure its long-term preservation and sustainable management.