A Novel Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis Method

In order to give full play to the advantages of T-S dynamic fault tree and dynamic Bayesian network in analysis modeling and reasoning calculation respectively, a novel dynamic Bayesian network analysis method, namely dynamic Bayesian network analysis method, was proposed based on T-S dynamic fault tree. First, a T-S dynamic fault tree was converted into a dynamic Bayesian network directed acyclic graph and a T-S dynamic gate and the description rules were converted into a dynamic Bayesian network conditional probability table. Then, the algorithm of novel dynamic Bayesian network was proposed for forward reasoning leaf node failure probability, backward reasoning root node posterior probability and solving root node probability importance measure, criticality importance measure, risk achievement worth, risk reduction worth, differential importance measure and sensitivity. The feasibility of the proposed method was verified by comparing with dynamic Bayesian network analysis method based on Dugan dynamic fault tree and static Bayesian network analysis method. Finally, the reliability of hydraulic cylinder synchronous system was analyzed by the method proposed herein. Failure probability of the system, posterior probability, importance measures and sensitivities of root nodes were obtained, which may provide basis for improving system reliability and fault diagnosis. © 2020, China Mechanical Engineering Magazine Office. All right reserved.