Regional Sediment Management in US Coastal States: Historical Trends and Future Predictions

Sea level rise and natural disasters, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, are resulting in coastal erosion-related problems across the US. Beach nourishment is one of the most commonly adopted solutions for erosion mitigation. Borrow sources for nourishment are often from offshore or upland mines. However, in some areas, sediment availability from known borrow sources is becoming scarce. This suggests that sediment should be considered a non-renewable resource within the framework of long-term planning and coastal management decisions. Regional Sediment Management (RSM), or the beneficial use of dredge material (BUDM), targets inlets for borrowing material and can also be a more cost-efficient strategy that has widely been supported by the US Army Corps of Engineers as a system-based approach. However, not all states have embraced this approach, and a national-scale evaluation of these projects in coastal management and adaptation is needed. This study examines past RSM/BUDM projects in the top ten most highly nourished states in the US and compares those trends to a selection of minimally nourished states from different coasts. Based on the historical trends identified, the volume of sediment required for future RSM/BUDM projects in these areas over the next 50 years is predicted using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Although growth in the total number of RSM/BUDM projects was measured over time, there was a decline in the volume of sediment placed for these projects. Results of the forecasting model suggest that CA, NC, and the FL Gulf Coast could require the highest volume of sediments for RSM/BUDM activities over the next 50 years. Based solely on proximity to inlets for sediment resources, DE, FL Atlantic, and NJ coasts are potential beaches that can increase BUDM activities. This study aims to provide a framework to evaluate the suitability of future RSM/BUDM projects in efforts to mitigate coastal erosion.