The impact of COVID-19 on wildlife strike rates in the United States

Shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic impacted air traffic, industry bodies warned of the potential increase in wildlife strike risk. Prior to the pandemic, wildlife strikes were already a concern to the industry. We sought to evaluate industry warnings using interrupted time series analysis of wildlife strike trends in the United States. Using pre-pandemic wildlife strike trends, we compared a forecast of the expected monthly strike rates through the COVID-19 impact period (March 2020 to December 2020) to the actual wildlife strike rates for the same period. Our results showed an increase in wildlife strike rates in 5 out of the 10 months analyzed, supporting the need for careful consideration of wildlife strike risk through the industry's recovery.