Failure probability estimation for structures based on health monitoring data and Bayesian network

被引：0
|
作者：
Ma Z. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Luo Y.-Z. [4 ]
Ge H.-B. [4 ]
Wan H.-P. [4 ]
Fu W.-W. [5 ]
Shen Y.-B. [4 ]
机构：
[1] Department of Civil Engineering, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou
[2] Key Laboratory of Safe Construction, Intelligent Maintenance for Urban Shield Tunnels of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou
[3] Zhejiang Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Urban Infrastructure, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou
[4] Space Structure Research Center, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou
[5] Department of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou
来源：
Zhejiang Daxue Xuebao (Gongxue Ban)/Journal of Zhejiang University (Engineering Science) | 2023年 / 57卷 / 08期
关键词：
Bayesian dynamic linear model; Bayesian network; structural failure probability assessment; structural health monitoring; time-varying reliability index;
D O I：
10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2023.08.008
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Based on health monitoring data and Bayesian network (BN), a real-time estimation method of structural system failure probability was proposed, which was applied for assessing structural safety conditions dynamically. First, the Bayesian dynamic linear model (BDLM) was established using structural health monitoring data, and the probabilistic distribution of the load effect was calculated. Time-varying reliability of structural components was obtained, combined with distribution of structural resistance. Then, the BN was constructed according to the main failure mode of the structure, where the dependency between failure of the components and the structure can be described. Through probability inference of the BN, the failure probability of the structural system can be obtained from the component reliability, and the quantitative assessment of overall structural safety conditions was achieved. Finally, the proposed method was verified by the simulated data of a three-bar truss and the measured data of static failure test of a single layer reticulated shell. Results show that the proposed method properly quantifies the safety condition of the structure and successfully gives the early warning of the structural failure. © 2023 Zhejiang University. All rights reserved.
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页码：1551 / 1561
页数：10
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