Seismic Damage Probability Assessment of Existing Reinforced Concrete School Buildings in Afghanistan

Existing Reinforced Concrete School buildings with low earthquake resistance may suffer structural failure or severe damage in a catastrophic seismic event. Ascertaining earthquake resistance in existing school buildings is vital to confirming the safety of students, teachers, and all school members. Reinforced concrete (RC) has been used significantly for numerous years as the primary material due to its easy access and low cost-effectiveness in construction. The current research focused on analyzing the existing RC school buildings designed and constructed in various regions of Afghanistan over the last three decades. Seismic fragility curves, which are generated from incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), have been used to evaluate the damage probability of RC school buildings against earthquake ground motions. In this investigation, 34 RC school buildings were selected from an extensive database and subsequently classified as either A-type or B-type based on specific criteria, including design details and construction year. Following this classification, an assessment of the seismic damage probability for these buildings was conducted using probabilistic models based on IDA curves. The results indicate that A-type school buildings with newer construction are less prone to damage compared to B-type school buildings, showing improved resilience. Especially the B-type buildings in seismic Zone-I are found to be highly vulnerable under the maximum considered earthquake scenarios.