How does new urbanization affect urban green total factor productivity? A perspective based on coordinated development

China’s new urbanization strategy serves as a key instrument for achieving sustainable development goals in urban areas. However, a consensus on how and whether new urbanization affects urban green total factor productivity (GTFP) has yet to be reached. This analysis targets 276 prefecture-level and above cities, using panel data from 2011 to 2019 to assess the impact of the new urbanization pilot policy (NUPP) on GTFP. The research findings demonstrate that implementing China’s NUPP has significantly enhanced urban GTFP. Furthermore, the population-land-industry coupling coordination degree (PLICCD), as well as the industry-environment-economy coupling coordination degree (IEECCD), play crucial facilitating roles in the aforementioned enhancement effects. The results remain robust even after employing PSM-staggered difference-in-differences (DID) estimation and excluding other policy interferences. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis, based on urban characteristics, reveals that the NUPP significantly enhances GTFP in resource-based, non-resource-based, industrial, non-intensive compactness, and non-expansionary urbanization cities. Finally, the paper offers three policy recommendations. First, new urbanization initiatives should be more actively promoted in China and other developing countries. Second, the construction of new urbanization plans should focus on the coordinated development of population-land-industry and industry-environment-economy. Third, the government should implement new urbanization initiatives tailored to the specific characteristics of different cities. This study provides valuable insights for the general public, policymakers, and scholars to better understand the potential of coordinating the development of population, land, industry, the environment, and the economy to improve GTFP. Moreover, it offers a broad perspective for evaluating sustainable urban development. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024.