Short-term optimal operation model of hydropower station coupling the integrality of forecast uncertainty

被引：0

作者：

Ji C. ^{[1
]}

Liu Y. ^{[1
]}

Wang Y. ^{[1
]}

Zhang Y. ^{[1
]}

Chen P. ^{[2
]}

Wang L. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing

[2] Yalong River Hydropower Development Company Ltd., Chengdu

来源：

Wang, Yi (51102473@ncepu.edu.cn) | 1600年 / International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation and China Water and Power Press卷 / 52期

关键词：

Closeness; Forecast uncertainty; Hydropower generation operation; Hydropower station; Operation risk;

D O I：

10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20201036

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The deterministic forecasted streamflow which is input of short-term optimal operation model of hydropower station is highly affected by forecast uncertainty, which may lead to the deviation between the planed operation schemes and actual operation results, causing the water abandon or insufficient output. Hence, based on the process of generate operation schemes, this study analyzed the correlation among fore- cast uncertainty in different lead times and constructed the short-term hydropower station optimal operation model coupling the integrality of forecast uncertainty. Taking the Jinxi hydropower station as a case study, the article analyzed the benefit and risk of the proposed model based on the actual total power generation and closeness and compared difference between the proposed model and traditional deterministic optimal model. The results show that the proposed model can effectively increase the actual power generation and the reliability of schemes. Therefore, the proposed model is useful for the short-term hydropower station optimal operation. © 2021, China Water Power Press. All right reserved.

引用

页码：907 / 916

页数：9

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