Resource utilization potential of municipal solid waste affects the sustainable development goals progress in China

In the past decades, municipal solid waste (MSW) has generally been recognized as a substance that poses risks to human health and the ecosystem. With the emergence of the sustainable idea, MSW began to be recognized as a renewable resource and technological methods were used to make MSW as a resource utilization potential (RUP) source. SDGs realization relies on MSW's sustainable management. However, how the MSW's RUP affects to SDGs and how the two are coupled still needs to be explored. In this study, we took China, the largest MSW producer in developing countries, as an example. First, we selected 17 SDG indicators (including 83 nested indicators) and assessed China's SDG progress from 2005 to 2021 based on the SDG weighting calculation method. Regression analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) were then used to explore the direct and indirect impacts of MSW's RUP on the SDGs. Finally, a counterfactual analysis was used to determine the regional heterogeneity of the impact of MSW's RUP on SDGs. The results show that China made greater progress in its SDG scores overall between 2005 and 2021, with particularly strong progress in SDG1 (poverty eradication) and SDG3 (healthy living). The MSW's RUP contributes positively to SDGs 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 17 (economy, health, water, industry, community, and global partnerships). The response of SDGs 2, 7, and 16 (zero hunger, energy, and justice) to MSW's RUP showed a threshold when the MSW's RUP value was 0.3 GJ. The MSW's RUP has a negative impact on SDG13 and SDG15 (climate change and ecosystems). Regional heterogeneity exists in the relationship between MSW's RUPs and the SDGs, therefore the promotion of MSW's RUPs is targeted to different provinces. The MSW's RUP provides significant potential for improvement in energy production and material production, and adherence to managing MSW using a sustainable mindset will contribute to the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.