Causal relationship between household consumption transition and CO2 emission in China: a dynamic panel model

The mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated from household consumption, accounting for 52% of China’s total greenhouse gas emissions, plays a pivotal role in China’s pursuit of reaching a carbon peak by 2030. The study used three waves of nationally representative longitudinal data, energy statistics data, and input–output table to estimate household CO2 emissions (HCEs) in China at the micro-scale. The dynamic relationship between household consumption pattern transition and HCEs per capita was explored by applying maximum likelihood and structural equation modeling (ML-SEM) with panel data. The results indicate that per capita HCE level in a given year appears to be positively associated with HCE level for the same household in the previous year. A U-shaped relationship between consumption pattern transition and HCEs per capita was confirmed, as well as the reinforcement effect of income on the impacts of consumption pattern transition. The increase in consumption propensity, household income, share of wage-income, household asset values, and house space results in higher HCEs per capita. The family size and dependency ratio have a negative relationship with HCEs, whereas households that are female-oriented and more Internet-dependent tend to produce more CO2. Exploring the consumption transition of households is crucial for reducing CO2 emissions at the household level in China.