Probability forecasting method of Three Gorges Reservoir inflow flood based on error distribution estimation

被引：0
|
作者：
Jun Z. [1 ]
Baofei F. [1 ]
Wenjing N. [1 ]
Le W. [1 ,2 ]
Yuni X. [1 ]
Yifei T. [1 ]
Fangjia Y. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan
[2] State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan
来源：
Hupo Kexue/Journal of Lake Sciences | 2023年 / 35卷 / 02期
关键词：
dstribution estimation; Error dstribuion; flood forecast; operational forecast; probablistic forecasting; Three Gorges Reservoir;
D O I：
10.18307/2023.0228
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Accurate and imely inflow flood forecasting pays an mportant role in the comprehensive benefit of the Three Gorges Reservoir, and the prevention of floods and droughts, the utilization of water resources, the comprehensive management for the Yangtze River basin Based on the optimal dstribution estimation of the predction error and the assumption of the dynamic parameters for the dstribuion function, a probablity predction method for the inflow flood of the Three Gorges Reservoir is proposed, and the operational test of the probablity predction of the flood s carried out. The resuts show that the physical rational of the presented method s clear, and t is easy to be appied and popuarized in real-time operation forecast. Compared with he deterministic predction resuts, the probablity forecast has improved in water volume predction and early warning effect. For exampe, he certainty coefficient of forecast in 1-5 d s increased by 01%-34%, and the water volume error is reduced by 01%-48%, whch can provide more reliabe forecast information for the real-time operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The proposed operational product of probablity forecast of inflow flood process can provide more risk information, and provide better support for scientific and fine operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, especially for optimal decision-making of flood resource utilization. ©2023 by Journal of Lake Sciences.
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页码：722 / 729
页数：7
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