Infection and Prevention of COVID-19 in Schools Based on Real-Life Interpersonal Contact Data

被引:0
|
作者
Sun H.-C. [1 ]
Xu M.-D. [1 ]
Xu X.-K. [1 ]
机构
[1] School of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University, Dalian, 116600, Liaoning
关键词
Cluster outbreak; COVID-19; Disease spread; Effective distance; SEIR model;
D O I
10.12178/1001-0548.13_2020172
中图分类号
R19 [保健组织与事业(卫生事业管理)];
学科分类号
摘要
With the stabilization of the COVID-19 in China, the resumption of study has become the hottest issue most concerned by the people. The long-time gathering and face-to-face contact of students and teachers in schools increase the risk of their mutual infection. Although school suspension is generally considered to be the most feasible strategy to alleviate epidemics, large-scale isolation is often accompanied by high socio-economic costs and even social panic. Therefore, when an outbreak occurs in schools, we need to try to use more detailed scientific prevention and control measures. In this study, the spread of the COVID-19 in schools is simulated based on real interpersonal contact data, and the prevention and control measures are formulated by calculating the effective distance among students. This study finds that students have more contact with students in the same class and grade in schools. Therefore, when cases are found in schools, the development of the epidemic can be controlled by closing the patient's class and grade in time, and it will achieve similar or even better results than the closed school. In addition, in the absence of closure and the application of prevention and control measures, the impact of the proportion of asymptomatic patients and the incubation period infectivity in school outbreaks are analyzed, respectively. After the prevention and control measures are applied, the epidemic situation in each case will be controlled, and it will soon usher in a time when the epidemic situation improves. The research in this paper helps schools to select appropriate prevention and control measures, and accurately assess the impact of asymptomatic patients and incubation period infectivity on the epidemic. © 2020, Editorial Board of Journal of the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China. All right reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:399 / 407
页数:8
相关论文
共 28 条
  • [1] The current COVID-19 epidemic situation of Wuhan, 2019
  • [2] CHEN Duan-bing, BAI Wei, WANG Yan, Et al., Quantitative evaluation of the prevention and control effects of COVID-19, Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, (2020)
  • [3] VIBOUD C, BOELLE P Y, CAUCHEMEZ S, Et al., Risk factors of influenza transmission in households, British Journal of General Practice, 54, 506, pp. 684-689, (2004)
  • [4] CAUCHEMEZ S, FERGUSON N M, WACHTEL C, Et al., Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 9, 8, pp. 473-481, (2009)
  • [5] LITVINOVA M, LIU Q H, KULIKOV E S, Et al., Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 27, pp. 13174-13181, (2019)
  • [6] BROWN S T, TAI J H Y, BAILEY R R, Et al., Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost? A computational simulation of Pennsylvania, Bmc Public Health, 11, 1, (2011)
  • [7] PAN X, CHEN D, XIA Y, Et al., Asymptomatic cases in afamily cluster with SARS-CoV-2 infection, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20, 4, pp. 410-411, (2020)
  • [8] BAI Y, YAO L, WEI T, Et al., Presumed asymptomatic carrier transmission of COVID-19, JAMA, (2020)
  • [9] LIN Jun-feng, Assessment and prediction of COVID-19 based on SEIR model with undiscovered people, Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, (2020)
  • [10] SUN Wan-wan, LING Feng, PAN Jin-ren, Et al., Epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus family clustering in Zhejiang Province, Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, (2020)