Characteristics and prediction of greenhouse gas emission from livestock industry in Central China

The greenhouse gases inventory of central China was calculated according to IPCC guideline, and then a systematical analysis was conduct to reveal the status of animal husbandry in terms of total greenhouse gases emissions and emission intensity. In addition, a Logistic growth model, a Gompertz curve model and other non-linear time series models were used to simulate the livestock numbers and the corresponding greenhouse gases emissions of livestock in central China in 2030. In 2015, the total emissions of central China was 62.8909 million tCO2-eq, with emissions per unit GDP about 11, 300tCO2-eq/billion yuan, or emissions per unit meat output about 3.73tCO2-eq/t. In 2030, the total emissions range from 49.90 to 59.33million tCO2-eq according to different model settings. Technical improvement in animal husbandry should be further optimized to promote the greenhouse gases emission efficiency. In addition, plans for keeping reasonable livestock with optimized structure is also essential to reduce the emissions of animal husbandry. © 2020, Editorial Board of China Environmental Science. All right reserved.