Probabilistic security analysis based on renewable energy scenario modeling

As the proportion of large-scale variable power generation increases, it is necessary to secure the grid reliability and flexibility of the power system. In addition, it is necessary to analyze the probabilistic security analysis considering the output variability of renewable energy. In this paper, scenarios reflecting the characteristics of renewable energy were created through the renewable energy output scenario modeling based on Monte Carlo Simulation. The scenario is used as input data for calculation of steady state and AC contingency solution assumed power flow, and probabilistic security analysis of branch flow and bus voltage was performed on the practical power system. The proposed algorithm can be used for decision making to establish a stable power system operation and plan according to the large-scale variability power system connection by analyzing the weak branches and buses according to the fluctuations in the output of renewable energy. © 2021 Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers. All rights reserved.