Wind Power Prediction Model Considering Meteorological Factor and Spatial Correlation of Wind Speed

被引：0
|
作者：
Hu S. [1 ]
Xiang Y. [1 ]
Shen X. [1 ]
Liu J. [1 ]
Liu J. [1 ]
Li J. [1 ]
机构：
[1] College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu
来源：
Dianli Xitong Zidonghua/Automation of Electric Power Systems | 2021年 / 45卷 / 07期
关键词：
Meteorological factor; Numerical weather prediction (NWP); Prediction model; Wind power generation; Wind speed correction; Wind speed correlation;
D O I：
10.7500/AEPS20200218012
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
A combined weighted wind power prediction model is established, which takes meteorological factors and the spatial correlation of the wind speed in numerical weather prediction (NWP) into account. First, considering that the data accuracy of the NWP is not high enough, a wind speed correction model for NWP based on Gaussian process is built, and other meteorological factors, such as wind direction, temperature, humidity, and air pressure, are taken into account for wind power prediction. At the same time, based on the analysis of the spatial correlation of the wind speed between the target wind farm and the adjacent wind farm area, the delay time of the maximum correlation coefficient point is obtained, and the prediction model of spatial correlation for the wind speed is established. Then, based on the wind power prediction model and the spatial correlation prediction model using the deviation correction of the NWP, a combined weighted prediction model is established, and the Lagrangian multiplier method is used to obtain the weighted value of each single model in the combined model. The case results show that the proposed model and method can effectively improve the accuracy of wind power prediction. © 2021 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press.
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页码：28 / 36
页数：8
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