The monthly trends of malaria cases in children under 5 years of age in Guinea: comparative analysis between a seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) and a non-SMC health district

BackgroundThe Republic of Guinea, where malaria represents the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children, the seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is deployed only in areas with very seasonal modes of transmission. It should target children at the highest risk of serious illness. The objective of the study was to prevent uncomplicated and serious cases of malaria in the target population. This study aimed to analyse the monthly trends in malaria-related morbidity among children under the age of 5 in Guinea.MethodsThis was a quasi-experimental study with routine data from the National Health Information System (SNIS). The two districts Mamou (the SMC intervention site) and Kindia (the control site) were selected to compare the monthly trends in malaria cases among children under the age of 5, from July to October, covering the years from 2015 to 2020. The statistical analysis used interrupted time series to estimate the effects of the SMC.ResultsThe SMC programme contributed to a significant average reduction in the number of malaria cases of 225 cases per month in the intervention district (95% CI - 362 to - 88; p = 0.002), compared to the control district. However, the study also revealed that the effect of SMC varied between cycles, presenting different monthly malaria cases.ConclusionThe SMC contributed to a significant reduction in malaria cases among children under the age of 5 in the health district of Mamou from 2018 to 2020. However, this reduction varied by monthly SMC cycle. This study suggests extending the SMC in other areas with high perennial seasonal transmission respecting the World Health Organization SMC eligibility criteria, as a strategy in the dynamic of reducing malaria cases in children under the age of 5 in Guinea.