VIKOR Model of TBM Construction Risk Prediction for a Long Inclined Shaft in a Coal Mine based on Trapezoidal Vague Set

Accurate warning is realized in this study in order to improve the reliability of the construction risk analysis model of shield machine (tunnel boring machine, TBM) in a long inclined shaft of coal mine. First, the risk factors of TBM construction of a long inclined shaft in coal mine were identified, the index system of secondary risk assessment was established, and the classification standard of risk grade was determined. Then, on the basis of introducing two trapezoidal vague number algorithms, the trapezoidal vague number BM operator and the weighted arithmetic average operator were proposed, respectively, and several conclusions were obtained. The weight vector of the risk index was determined by the deviation maximization method, after which the VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) model based on the trapezoidal Vague number was established. Finally, the TBM construction risks of the long inclined shaft (No. 2 test well) in the Taigmiao mining area of Shenhua Group of China was evaluated, and the trends were forecasted by using this model. Results show that: (1) The risk method proposed in this study can effectively depict and deal with uncertain monitoring information. (2) Compared with the results of the scoring method and the utility value method, the rankings of the optimal and the worst risk grades are maintained, and the ranking results obtained by the scoring method and the VIKOR method are also the same. (3) The calculated monitoring results are consistent with the actual safety conditions of the coal mine construction. Conclusions indicate that the model and method are effective and practical in coal mine risk assessment, which can provide a new way for the analysis and prediction of TBM construction risks in a long inclined shaft. © 2020 School of Science, IHU. All rights reserved.