Trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in Yutian County along the Keriya River Basin, Northwest China

The Keriya River Basin is located in an extremely arid climate zone on the southern edge of the Tarim Basin of Northwest China, exhibiting typical mountain-oasis-desert distribution characteristics. In recent decades, climate change and human activities have exerted significant impacts on the service functions of watershed ecosystems. However, the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services (ESs) have not been thoroughly examined. This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal changes in ESs within the Keriya River Basin from 1995 to 2020 as well as the trade-offs and synergies between ESs. Leveraging the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) using land use/land cover (LULC), climate, vegetation, soil, and hydrological data, we quantified the spatiotemporal changes in the five principal ESs (carbon storage, water yield, food production, wind and sand prevention, and habitat quality) of the watershed from 1995 to 2020. Spearman correlation coefficients were used to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between ES pairs. The findings reveal that water yield, carbon storage, and habitat quality exhibited relatively high levels in the upstream, while food production and wind and sand prevention dominated the midstream and downstream, respectively. Furthermore, carbon storage, food production, wind and sand prevention, and habitat quality demonstrated an increase at the watershed scale while water yield exhibited a decline from 1995 to 2020. Specifically, carbon storage, wind and sand prevention, and habitat quality presented an upward trend in the upstream but downward trend in the midstream and downstream. Food production in the midstream showed a continuously increasing trend during the study period. Trade-off relationships were identified between water yield and wind and sand prevention, water yield and carbon storage, food production and water yield, and habitat quality and wind and sand prevention. Prominent temporal and spatial synergistic relationships were observed between different ESs, notably between carbon storage and habitat quality, carbon storage and food production, food production and wind and sand prevention, and food production and habitat quality. Water resources emerged as a decisive factor for the sustainable development of the basin, thus highlighting the intricate trade-offs and synergies between water yield and the other four services, particularly the relationship with food production, which warrants further attention. This research is of great significance for the protection and sustainable development of river basins in arid areas.