Estonian Energy Roadmap to carbon neutrality

The aim of this study is to demonstrante Estonian Energy Roadmap 2040 modelling process, taking into account energy consumption in accordance with the expectation and improvement of the living standard. In the frame of this study, the evaluation of the possibility for Estonian Energy sector to become carbon neutral by 2040 have been presented. The methodology employed in this study consist of two main phases. Firstly, data collection and inputs from a number of experts and stakeholders who is working in Estonian energy sector. Secondly, technical and economic analyses using mathematical excel model. Additionally, energyPRO is used generate hour by hour computer simulations to assess the electricity grid’s ability to supply Estonia’s hourly energy demand The roadmap to climate neutrality models three sectors: electricity, heating/cooling and transport together, aiming at reducing overall energy consumption, sustainability, security of national supply and the implementation of balanced economic principles. Balanced economic principles in this case mean high resource efficiency and reduced amount of subsidies. Results of modelling show energy demand, energy mix and carbon emissions for these sectors in 2030 and 2040 and are compared with these indicators in 2021. The study estimates the amount of investment required to achieve carbon neutrality of Estonian energy sector. In assessing the future economy, the total environmental impact of activities, the preservation of the well-being of the Estonian population and economic reasonableness are examined in parallel with traditional economic indicators. © 2023, Aalborg University press. All rights reserved.