Impact factors and peaking simulation of carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province

The building sector has the fastest growth rate of carbon emissions and the greatest potential for carbon reduction. The building sector in Shandong Province ranks first in China in terms of total carbon emissions and growth rate. The study of carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province is an essential reference for Chinese building sector to achieve the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" target. This study uses historical data on carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province, based on which the influencing factors and carbon reduction potential are analyzed. A dynamic and comprehensive carbon emission prediction model for buildings was developed to predict the trajectory of carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2050 with the corresponding probability distribution. Results show that the main factors driving the increase in carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province are the level of affluence of the residents and the level of building services. The building area demand index and building energy efficiency are the most important factors inhibiting the increase in carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province during the same period. Under the baseline scenario, carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province will peak at 243.573 (+/- 46.022) million tonnes CO2 in 2035 (+/- 3) years. The floor area demand index and level of affluence of the residents are the most critical factors affecting the uncertainty of future of carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province.