Mathematical modeling and simulation for COVID-19 with mutant and quarantined strategy

A new nonlinear dynamics model named SEIMQR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Mutant-Quarantined-Recovered) is proposed to study the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 and predict its development tendency. We calculate equilibria and basic reproduction number, and prove the local asymptotic stability of the proposed model. The transcritical bifurcation of the equilibria and sensitivity of important parameters are analyzed. The least square method is employed to estimate model parameters, and then COVID-19 transmission tendency is predicted. The validity of the proposed model is verified by real data in Britain. Simulation results show that it can well simulate the spread of COVID-19 in three different periods, whose mean relative errors are 2.24 %, 2.20 %, and 6.54 %, respectively. Theoretical proofs and numerical simulations indicate that the proposed model is more adaptable to complex epidemics modeling like COVID-19, which can provide theoretical support for scientific epidemics prevention.