Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Droughts and Floods in Shandong Province, China and Their Relationship with Food Loss

Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production, determining the scale of drought and flood control projects, and reducing food loss. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index is calculated using monthly meteorological data from 1984 to 2020 in Shandong Province of China and is used to identify the province’s drought and flood characteristics. Then, food losses due to droughts and floods are estimated separately from disaster loss data. Finally, the relationship between drought/flood-related factors and food losses is quantified using methods such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression. The results show that: 1) there is a trend of aridity in Shandong Province, and the drought characteristic variables are increasing yearly while flood duration and severity are decreasing. 2) The food losses caused by droughts in Shandong Province are more than those caused by floods, and the area where droughts and floods occur frequently is located in Linyi City. 3) The impact of precipitation on food loss due to drought/flood is significant, followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature. 4) The relationship between drought and flood conditions and food losses can be precisely quantified. The accumulated drought duration of one month led to 1.939 × 104 t of grain loss, and an increase in cumulative flood duration of one month resulted in1.134 × 104 t of grain loss. If the cumulative drought severity and average drought peak increased by one unit, food loss due to drought will increase by 1.562 × 104 t and 1.511 × 106 t, respectively. If the cumulative flood severity and average flood peak increase by one unit, food loss will increase by 8.470 × 103 t and 1.034 × 106 t, respectively.