Influence of election year, change of public manager and electoral mandate on changes in composition of public spending in Brazilian states

The literature about the political budget cycle has focused on identifying factors, which are able to influence the existence and intensity of such cycles. The aim of this research consisted of investigating the influence of the election year (QAM), of the change of the public manager (MGE) and of the electoral mandate (PME) on changes in the composition of public expenditures in the Brazilian states. In order to achieve this target, an index (IMCGP) that reflects alterations in the composition of the public expenditures was created and used as a dependent variable. The sample was composed of the 26 states that make up Brazil from 2003 to 2015, comprising 312 observations and 3 electoral cycles. The technique of regression with panel data was used due the sample include sectional and temporal data. The evidence has shown that the electoral year and the first term do not have a significant influence on the index of change in the composition of public expenditure. The variable indicating governor changes howed a positive sign and statistical significance. The research concluded that changes in governors are accompanied by greater changes in the composition of public expenditure when compared to situations in which there is no change of leadership, increasing the knowledge about how political factors influence the dynamics of public expenditures in Brazil.