VAGINAL BIRTH AFTER CESAREAN DELIVERY - ARE THERE USEFUL AND VALID PREDICTORS OF SUCCESS OR FAILURE

OBJECTIVE: Before parturition are there useful and valid predictors of successful or unsuccessful vaginal birth after previous cesarean birth that could be used to enhance the obstetric care of a patient and her pregnancy? STUDY DESIGN: The clinical course and outcome of all patients who attempted vaginal birth after cesarean delivery at one level III center during 1989 were evaluated to identify factors prognostic of a successful or unsuccessful patient group; use of this information in stepwise logistic regression and cluster analysis was disappointing. RESULTS: No single criterion or optimal clusters of factors were found and no equation achieved >75% predictability of outcome with acceptable sensitivity and specificity, CONCLUSIONS: Before parturition prediction of outcome of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery is tenuous regardless of past obstetric history or recent clinical parameters. Thus it seems appropriate to encourage a trial of labor in almost all patients with a prior low-segment uterine incision (transverse or vertical) unless there is a strong physician or patient-derived contraindication to such an undertaking.