AN ANALYTICAL MODEL FOR THE CATASTROPHIC PRODUCTION OF ORBITAL DEBRIS

An analytical model is developed which describes the nonlinear processes associated with the catastrophic production of orbital debris. A hydrodynamic approximation is used which reduces the kinetic representation of orbital debris to a continuum, fluid representation. The solutions obtained are used to investigate the evolution of the current debris population under the action of atmospheric drag, the deposition of new objects and debris production through collisions. It is shown that a catastrophic growth in the debris population may occur as early as the middle of the next century. However, it is also shown that this rapid catastrophic growth is tripped at high altitude (almost-equal-to 10(3) km) where removal by atmospheric drag is extremely slow. It is therefore expected that a persistent band of debris will be produced, presenting a serious, long-term hazard for future operations in space. The production of this debris band may, however, be postponed by careful control of debris deposition at the most susceptible altitudes. It is therefore concluded that the control of total debris deposition is somewhat less important than the policies that control the altitudes at which it is deposited.