Is There a Relationship Between Value-Based Purchasing and Hospital Profitability? An Exploratory Study of Missouri Hospitals

Recent US legislation is attempting to transition inpatient Medicare payments to a value-based purchasing (VBP) program. The VBP program is a pay-for-performance (P4P) system that incentivizes hospitals to improve patient satisfaction, health outcomes, and adherence to clinical protocols while simultaneously holding down costs. Our study evaluates (1) the impact of financial performance on the VBP adjustments and (2) whether there is a correlation between the VBP adjustment and the financial performance of Missouri hospitals that opted into the program. While upward and downward adjustments to the inpatient base rate may be related to hospital financial performance, prior financial performance may also be related to the adjustments. Financial health may allow facilities to invest and position the hospital for favorable future P4P adjustments. The results of our analysis indicate the VBP adjustment to the inpatient base rate is very small (+/- 0.18%), clustered around zero, and is not correlated with financial performance. We also find that financial performance and improvement in the years prior to the adjustment are not related to the VBP adjustment or its respective components. This suggests that CMS is avoiding penalizing less profitable facilities, but the adjustment is also so small and tightly clustered around zero that it is failing to provide an adequate incentive to hospitals. The costs of improving patient satisfaction, clinical process adherence, health care outcomes, and efficiency above that of peers coupled with the growing number of metrics being used to calculate the VBP adjustments call into question the financial incentives of the hospital VBP program.