Does Perceived Competence Matter? Political Parties and Economic Voting in Canadian Federal Elections

In this article, we argue that the extent to which Canadian federal incumbents are punished for past economic deterioration is contingent upon the political party forming government. Examining the effect of national macroeconomic conditions on incumbent vote in Canadian federal elections over a 50-year period (1953-2000), the article proposes an aggregate-level model of economic voting that takes into account the partisan affiliation of the incumbent government. The results of the pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis indicate that Liberal incumbents are not as strongly affected by macroeconomic conditions as Conservative incumbents. Contrary to what prior scholarship has suggested, the observed difference does not appear to be caused by the parties' respective ideological priorities, but rather by the parties' reputation (or perceived competence) in handling economic problems.