Licence recalls and returns to custody in England and Wales

The Ministry of Justice issued statistics of recalls to custody in July 2009, after media outrage about murders committed by an offender remaining free some 33 days after his recall. A contrast is drawn between the Ministry of Justice recall figures with in many ways analogous cancer survival rates, which provide helpful estimates of probability of succumbing to the disease. The Ministry of Justice figures do not address the key question of the number and proportion of those recalled who remain at liberty 1, 2, 3 and so on months after release. Re-analysis of the figures tentatively concludes that a minimum of 330 of those recalled remain at liberty 6 months after their recall and a minimum of 200 12 months after recall. Analyses subsequently released by the Ministry of Justice are liable to the same criticisms as those analysed here.