Sea surface temperatures as predictors of cyclonic activity over the North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone (TC) activities over the North Indian Ocean (Comprising Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (AS)) constitute one of the major natural disasters for our country. Indian Coasts are very much vulnerable and susceptible to TCs. In order to understand the TC activities, estimations of their frequency and cyclone days (CD), are necessary. In this study, the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the Indian Ocean region (50(circle)E-120(circle)E and 30(circle)S-30(circle)N) are used as predictors. The set of regression equations are formulated for the months of May, October and November, as they are the months with maximum frequencies of occurrences of cyclones over North Indian Ocean. The performances of these equations are also discussed