EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE LEADING INDICATORS OF BRITISH-COLUMBIA INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT

被引：2
|
作者：
HOLMES, RA [1 ]
SHAMSUDDIN, AFM [1 ]
机构：
[1] SIMON FRASER UNIV,DEPT ECON,BURNABY V5A 1S6,BC,CANADA
来源：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1993年 / 9卷 / 01期
关键词：
LEADING INDICATOR; FORECASTS; TURNING POINTS; ARIMA MODELS; TRANSFER FUNCTION MODELS;
D O I：
10.1016/0169-2070(93)90055-R
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
Leading indicators based on principal components and weighted r2 values are evaluated in this study. The tests are based on out-of-sample forecasts of British Columbia employment. Overall, the principal component approach is found to be superior in tests conducted separately by forecast horizons ranging from 1 to 12 months, and in tests conducted in the months immediately following the 1984-2 turning point. This finding is explained in the study by the methodological superiority of the leading indicator based on principal components of the input series.
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页码：77 / 83
页数：7
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