THE POLISH TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY - A GAME-THEORETIC APPROACH

This article present a game-theoretic model of the transition to democracy in Poland. The events in Poland are conceptualized as a strategic game between a government and an opposition. The transition is modeled as a sequence of intentional decisions about political arrangements. During the 1980s Poland went through three such arrangements: dictatorship, broadened dictatorship, and democracy. Each one is understood as a game-theoretic equilibrium. The transition between two political arrangements is explained as a shift from one equilibrium to another. These shifts occurred because the probability of Soviet intervention diminished over time, changing incentives for the government and the opposition.