LEADERSHIP, POST-COLD-WAR POLITICS, AND PSYCHOLOGY

Several psychological processes will play important roles in determining the shape of the post-Cold War world. This world will be more structurally and cognitively complex than the previous era, will call for more value trade-offs, and will require greater tolerance for ambiguity. Beliefs about security and the causes of war will also be important. The psychological biases of risk aversion, the assimilation of evidence to fit beliefs, and the propensity to see what one needs to see will operate strongly. Because the external environment is less compelling than it was, the range of choice and role for values will be increased.