EVOLUTION OF INFANT AND CHILD-MORTALITY IN CHILE - A MODEL

A model in which the birth rate and the infant and child mortality rates are jointly determined is used to explain the coexistence of declining infant and child mortality, with increasing unemployment and falling living standards for at least part of the population. The causes of the mortality decline are complex and include economic, health care, welfare, urbanization and other aspects. Unemployment affected the birth rate and, therefore, the child mortality rate, but the fall in infant mortality obeyed different factors, such as midwife visits, health expenditure and access to cheap energy. Policies require careful designing since often there is a trade-off between infant and child mortality, specially if the birth rate is high: progress in one of these areas may prove counterproductive in the other. If choices along the economy's Phillips curve are possible, solely on infant and child mortality grounds higher earnings should be preferred to lower unemployment.