THE STRUCTURE OF SELF-FULFILLING AND SELF-NEGATING PROPHECIES

A formal system based on the sentential calculus is constructed to explore the logical properties of autogenetic (self-fulfilling and self-negating) beliefs. The language enables us to distinguish among types of autogenesis which have previously been regarded as identical, and to describe new types which have not yet been discussed in the experimental literature. The analysis proceeds in three stages. The first stage deals with individual autogenetic processes, wherein a single person's belief system has an effect on the truth or falsehood of what is believed (e.g. the placebo effect). The second stage deals with social processes in which the belief systems of two or more individuals have an autogenetic effect that cannot be produced by any single belief system in isolation (e.g. a run on the banks). The third stage deals with higher-order processes in which a belief about one's own involvement in an autogenetic processes has itself a further and more complicated autogenetic effect (e.g. faith-healing). Higher-order autogenesis has paradoxical consequences that raise fundamental questions about the nature and scope of empirical knowledge.