Diffusion in Networks: The Strategic Spread of Islamism

In this paper, we develop a fuzzy mathematics approach to study the influence of actors in networks on diffusion. We construct a dynamic diffusion model that represents the interactions and evolution of the current international network and determines the rate of Islamism by the internal and external pressures exerted on each state. We then identify key states in the international system by their degree to test if, and to what extent, they influence the rate and breadth of diffusion. Using this model we determine to what extent the most central actors in a network influence the overall rate of diffusion. We hypothesize that diffusion by the most central actors in the international system will greatly increase the overall rate of diffusion for the remaining actors. Given the current structure of the international system, we hypothesize that the prevalence of Islamism will decrease over time.