Integrated method of petroleum products demand forecasting considering economic, demographic and technological factors

The article describes the new methodology for forecasting demand for petroleum products and specific groups of petroleum products globally and in various countries ( nodes) and the results of its application for petroleum products demand forecasting in Russia. The developed methodology incorporates various forecasting approaches: correlation, factor forecasting, technical, economic and econometric analysis with elements of economic and mathematical modelling. This methodology may be used for a wide range of tasks, including markets forecasts for specific petroleum products, e.g., jet fuel or gasoline and integrated analysis of the world oil market development prospects and the future role of petroleum products in the energy balance of individual countries and regions.