AN ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN MODEL FOR INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CHANGE

This paper describes the atmosphere-ocean system of the integrated model IMAGE 2.0. The system consists of four linked models, for atmospheric composition, atmospheric climate, ocean climate and for ocean biosphere and chemistry. The first model is globally averaged, the latter are zonally averaged with additional resolution in the vertical. The models reflect a compromise between describing the physical, chemical and biological processes and moderate computational requirements. The system is validated with direct observations for current conditions (climate, chemistry) and is consistent with results from General Circulation Model experiments. The system is used in the integrated setting of the IMAGE 2.0 model to give transient climate projections. Global surface temperature is simulated to increase by 2.5 K over the next century for socio-economic scenarios with continuing economic and population growth. In a scenario study with reduced ocean circulation, the climate system and the global C cycle are found to be appreciably sensitive to such changes.