STAYING-ON IN FULL-TIME EDUCATION IN SCOTLAND, 1985-1991

This paper analyses the changing level and distribution of participation in post-compulsory education among four cohorts of Scottish 16-year-olds, from 1984/85 to 1990/91. Staying-on rates rose from 48% to 63% during this period. They rose relatively fast among those with the lowest attainment in compulsory schooling, and among students whose parents had left school early. Staying-on rates varied across schools, even among students with the same individual characteristics, and the extent of this variation depended on students' attainment, gender and parental occupation. Part of the variation could be attributed to the local labour market in which the school was located, but the 'discouraged worker' effect of local unemployment rates appeared to decline over the period. Compositional change-the tendency for more 16-year-olds to have high attainment or social characteristics associated with staying-on-accounted far only one third of the rise in staying-on rates. The paper discusses other explanations, and describes changes in education and the labour market which appear to have increased the incentives to stay on; it also notes that increasing proportions of stayers-on express positive attitudes towards the intrinsically educational aspects of school.