PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLUENCE OF GEOLOGICAL RISKS ON THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF OIL-AND GAS-INVESTMENT PROJECTS

Probabilistic nature of prospecting and exploration for oil and gas fields is an integral property of geological exploration. The appraisal of risk and reliability of decisions to be taken in developing the mineral resource base is stupendous for determining the economic efficiency of oil-and-gas investment projects. To get such an appraisal is possible based on a geologic-mathematical model of probabilistic incremental oil and gas reserves. The basis for this model is a composition of two distributions descriptive of regularities in discovering fields (binomial) and obtaining their specified incremental reserves (exponential, truncated Pareto's distribution of, beta- distribution, etc.). The essence of the suggested approach consists in establishing quantitative proportions between incremental reserves and scope of prospecting-evaluation work at various levels of confidence probability and in constructing a field of geologic risks from these levels.