LAND-USE PATTERN, FOREST MIGRATION, AND GLOBAL WARMING

Range limits of many plant species are expected to shift dramatically if climatic warming, driven by the release of greenhouse gases, occurs in the next century. The ability of species to migrate in response to the range shifts has been questioned, especially in the context of extensive habitat fragmentation which occurs in modern-day landscapes. Simulation models are presented which incorporate two factors, land use pattern and means of dispersal, to assess potential responses of forest species to climatic warming. Study areas displayed a range of human influence on the landscape, from heavily forested areas to areas dominated by urbanization and agriculture. The effect of establishing corridors (greenways) through fragmented landscapes is also assessed. Results indicate that many species may be unable to track shifts in climatically-controlled range limits, resulting in widespread disequilibrium between vegetation and climate. A variety of mitigating options likely will be necessary to offset the negative consequences of climatic warming on biological diversity. Land use planners and managers are encouraged to incorporate climate warming into long-term planning.