Modification and Validation of an Assessment Model of Post-Earthquake Lifeline Serviceability Based on the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster

The assessment model for post-earthquake lifeline serviceability of electric power, water, and city gas supply systems has been modified and applied to the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster with the detailed and updated data required for damage assessment. The estimated and observed population affected after the main shock and its decreasing process has been compared for validation on a prefectural basis. Reasonable agreement has been found between the estimation and observation except for discrepancies attributed to unconsidered factors, such as damage to hierarchically high facilities caused by tsunami, liquefaction, and/or ground shaking.