Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts

被引：34

作者：

Falloon, Pete ^{[1
]}

Challinor, Andy ^{[2
]}

Dessai, Suraje ^{[2
]}

Hoang, Lan ^{[3
]}

Johnson, Jill ^{[2
]}

Koehler, Ann-Kristin ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Climate Impacts Modelling, Earth Syst & Mitigat Sci, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

[2] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[3] Univ Cambridge, Dept Engn, Ctr Sustainable Dev, Cambridge, England

来源：

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE | 2014年 / 2卷

基金：

欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

climate change; climate impacts; ensembles; uncertainty; modeling;

D O I：

10.3389/fenvs.2014.00033

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistical methods for assessing uncertainties, issues regarding model integration and complexity, and ways in which uncertainty frameworks can be used to inform adaptation decisions, with case studies focused on agriculture. Finally, we highlight future research needs and provide recommendations for making further progress.

引用

页数：7

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