The manpower forecast model of the energy technology industry

Based on the data analysis of the Taiwan National Science Council's (TNSC) Technology Program Database from 1997 to 2008, this study builds a personnel forecasting model utilizing the Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) to forecast the manpower trend in the energy technology industry in the upcoming years. The study indicates that the total supply of manpower dedicated to the energy technology field will gradually increase from 2009 to 2013. In the forecast model from 2009 to 2014, the average manpower supply growth rate is 4.76%; however, the growth rate in personnel, number of research plans, and projected budgets are lower than those warranted by the needs. Although cross-domain research flows steadily into the energy technology segment, the industry's attrition rate is 11.6%, and the rate at which researchers leave and go to other cross-domain research fields is as high as 19.56%.