EVALUATION OF THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS ON THE STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMENT

被引：1
|
作者：
BLAZEJCZAK, J
机构：
[1] J. Blazejczak is at the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, D-1000 Berlin 33
来源：
FUTURES | 1991年 / 23卷 / 06期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1016/0016-3287(91)90081-C
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
A method is proposed to project the effects of new technologies on employment structure, utilizing technology-specific information. A three-dimensional technology evaluation scheme is developed based on sectors of the economy, fields of application of new technologies, and mechanisms through which new technologies influence key economic variables. Rated impacts of each field of application via each mechanism for each sector can then be ascribed an ordinate value, with a further round of judgment to aggregate over different technologies, mechanisms and sectors. The approach is applied to project changes in the sectoral structure of employment in Germany in the 1990s if the diffusion of new technologies is accelerated. © 1991.
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页码：594 / 604
页数：11
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