CAP Reform: Prospects the Enlarged EU tor crop markets in the Enlarged EU

Agricultural Policy Modelling in the EU has become more complicated due to the recent CAP reform and EU Enlargement. Under the AGMEMOD (Agricultural umber States Modelling) Partnership, teams of economists with specialist knowledge of agriculture in their own countries have come together to build the AGMEMOD model. The model can be used to analyse the impact of policy reform at a country level in EU member states and at an aggregate EU level. The model covers a wide variety of agricultural commodities, but this article focuses specifically on the impact of the policy reform on the cereals sector. Results are presented for the EU15 in aggregate, the New Member States (NMS), Bulgaria and Romania. The implication of EU Enlargement is also examined for the accession countries. For the EU15, results suggest that there would be a modest reduction in grain production and a slightly larger reduction in oilseeds production by 2010, as a response to the decoupling of cereal payments. Results for the NMS suggest that their accession will bring some modest growth in grains production by 2010, This result is not greatly different from that which might have been achieved had these countries remained outside the EU. The recent reforms limit the extent to which the CAP stimulates increased production in the NMS.